Thursday, December 17, 2015

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A/B) Resource Page


Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A/B)
Resource page for investors



ANNUAL MEETING NOTES (2000 - 2015)

2014: Notes from Annual Meeting (2015)
Value Walkhttp://www.valuewalk.com/2015/05/berkshire-hathaway-2015-notes/?all=1
WSJ: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/05/02/live-analysis-the-2015-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting/

2013: Notes from Annual Meeting (2014)
Fool.com http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/05/21/2014-berkshire-hathaway-annual-qa-with-warren-buff.aspx
WSJ: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/05/04/live-blog-berkshire-hathaways-annual-meeting/

2012: Notes from Annual Meeting (2013)
RBCPAhttp://www.rbcpa.com/Berkshire_Hathaway_Annual_Meeting_Notes_2013.pdf

2011: Notes from Annual Meeting (2012)
Cove Street Capitalhttp://covestreetcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Notes-from-the-2012-Berkshire-Hathaway-Annual-Meeting.pdf

2010: Notes from Annual Meeting (2011)
Ben Claremon: http://www.rbcpa.com/2011_Berkshire_Annual_Meeting_Notes-Ben_Claremon_Author.pdf

2009: Notes from Annual Meeting (2010)
RBCPA: http://www.rbcpa.com/BRK_2010_Boodell.pdf

2008: Notes from Annual Meeting (2009)
RBCPA: http://www.rbcpa.com/berkshire_2009annualmeeting_jv_bruni.pdf
Hendershot Investments (categorized)http://hendershotinvestments.com/new/hendershotinvestments/Berkshire%202009%20Meeting.pdf?advisorid=331723

2007: Notes from Annual Meeting (2008)
Tilson Fundshttp://www.tilsonfunds.com/BRKnotes08.pdf

2006: Notes from Annual Meeting (2007)
Tilson Funds: http://www.tilsonfunds.com/Berkshire_Hathaway_07_annual%20meeting_notes.pdf

2005: Notes from Annual Meeting (2006)
Whitney Tilson: http://www.designs.valueinvestorinsight.com/bonus/bonuscontent/docs/Tilson_2006_BRK_Meeting_Notes.pdf

2004: Notes from Annual Meeting (2005)
Tilson Fundshttp://www.tilsonfunds.com/brkmtg05notes.pdf

2003: Notes from Annual Meeting (2004) 
Whitney Tilsonhttp://www.grahamanddoddsville.net/wordpress/Files/Gurus/Warren%20Buffett/Berkshire%20Hathaway%20Annual%20Meeting%20Notes%202004.pdf

2002: Notes from Annual Meeting (2003)
Tilson Funds: http://www.tilsonfunds.com/motley_berkshire_brkmtg03notes.php

2001: Notes from Annual Meeting (2002)
Tilson Fundshttp://www.tilsonfunds.com/motley_berkshire_brkmtg02notes.php

2000: Notes from Annual Meeting (2001)
Tilson Fundshttp://www.tilsonfunds.com/motley_berkshire_brkmtg01notes.php

1999: Notes from Annual Meeting (2000)
Fool.com/ Whitney Tilsonhttp://www.fool.com/boringport/2000/boringport000501.htm


ANALYSIS OF BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY

Sequoia (Ruane, Cuniff, Goldfarb) 
Link to Investor Day transcripts (2005 - 2015) http://www.sequoiafund.com/fund-reports.htm

Allan Mecham (Arlington Value)
2013 Investor Letter (brief on BRK): http://www.scribd.com/doc/230981097/Arlington-Value-s-2013-Letter#scribd
2014 commentary on BRK (brief): http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/02/allan-mecham-investments/

Tom Gayner (Markel Corp MKL) on valuing BRK:
2011: http://gregspeicher.com/?p=2891

Whitney Tilson (Tilson Funds)
Nov. 9, 2015 (valuation of BRK) http://www.tilsonfunds.com/BRK.pdf


OTHER LINKS

http://buffettfaq.com/

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A/B): Investor Relations Links for Non-Equity Securities

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/

Utilities, Energy, and Railroad:
AltaLink, LP -- bought for $2.73 billion in Q4/2014 -- http://www.altalink.ca/about/investor-relations/quarterly-reports.cfm
Burlington Northern Santa Fe ("BNSF") -- bought November 2009 for $34 billion -- http://www.bnsf.com/about-bnsf/financial-information/
MidAmerican -- bought October 2009 for $9 billion --  https://www.berkshirehathawayenergyco.com/investors/financial-filings
Northern Natural Gas Co. -- bought in 2002 for $1.9 billion -- https://www.berkshirehathawayenergyco.com/investors/financial-filings
NV Energy -- bought May 2013 for $10 billion -- https://www.nvenergy.com/company/financial/
PacifiCorp -- http://www.pacificorp.com/about/fi.html

Manufacturing, Service, and Retailing:
Lubrizol -- bought March 2011 for $9 billion -- http://investor.lubrizol.com/Mobile.View?c=91008
McLane Company -- bought in 2003 for $1.45 billion -- N/A

Insurance
General Re -- bought in June 1998 for $22 billion -- http://www.genre.com/aboutus/financial-info/

Other:
Kraft Heinz -- BRK owns 26.8% + $8 billion pref. -- http://ir.kraftheinzcompany.com/
Heinz -- bought in 2013 for $23 billion (BRK $4b cash + $8 billion in Preferreds) -- http://www.heinz.com/our-company/investor-relations.aspx

Articles:
Buffett buys MidAmerican (1999 WSJ) Link
Buffett buying Burlington Northern (2009 WSJ) Link
Berkshire buying NV Energy (2013 WSJ) Link
Acquisition of AltaLink LP (2014 Reuters) Link
MidAmerican to buy Northern Natural Gas from Dynegy (2002 PRNewswire) Link
McLane Company acquisition (2002 NY Times) Link
Lubrizol acquisition (2011 WSJ) Link
Iscar - buys remaining 20% (2013 Reuters) Link
Marmon Group (2007 Bloomberg) Link
General Re (1998 LA Times) Link
Heinz & 3G (2013 WSJ) Link

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A/B): Update post-Q3/2015 results (released 11/06/2015)

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A/B)
Notes following Q3/2015 Earnings
11/06/2015

Restatement of acquisition strategy:
1.       Sensible price
2.       Consistent earnings power
3.       Good returns-on-equity (ROE)
4.       Honest management

Acquisitions (recent)

Van Tuyl Group (“Berkshire Hathaway Automotive”) – Q1/2015
  • 81 dealerships in 10 states
  •  Includes 2 related insurance businesses + 2 auto auctions + one manufacturer of auto. fluid maintenance
  •  $6.6 billion in assets / $2.5 billion in liabilities = $4.112 billion net assets ($2.39 billion net tangible assets)
  • Goodwill of $1.719 billion expected to be amortizable for tax purposes

My Notes on "Van Tuyl":

Rationale: US SAAR remains strong and the average life of a vehicle on the road is 11.5 years (Link), there are economies of scale in owning dealerships, the "Van Tuyl" Group is a collection of independently owned dealerships (thus is decentralized, similar to BRK), and....the capital base of Berkshire Hathaway can accelerate growth and consolidation in the auto dealership space. Common returns on equity in auto dealerships are >20%. 
  • Locations (see map)
  • Dealerships do not have “Van Tuyl” or “Berkshire Hathaway” name, rather a collection of dealerships across U.S.
  • Over $9 billion in revenue (had $5.3 billion in revenue in 2008)
  • All dealerships are independently operated (model is built on general managers having minority equity ownership in dealership or working to get equity stake)
  • Two insurance underwriters: Old United Casualty Co. & Old United Life
  • CEO is Jeff Rachor, a former Sonic Automotive Inc. president. Launched a venture in 2008 with Michael Dell’s investment firm which allowed Rachor the ability to purchase upto $500m of “premier” auto dealerships (http://www.autonews.com/article/20100118/RETAIL07/100119835/rachor-to-join-retailer-van-tuyl-steer-expansion)
  • My belief is Berkshire/ Warren Buffett looks only for businesses where if the business had “unlimited capital” it could grow faster (ample reinvestment runway) and scale (improved operations, margins). The Berkshire Hathaway capital base and cash flow provides WEB opportunity to inject more capital than the business could obtain prior to the acquisition
  • The top 5 public auto dealerships: CarMax (KMX), AutoNation (AN), Copart (CPRT), Penske Automotive (PAG), and Lithia Motors (LAD) all have ROE >20%, low net profit margins of ~2-4% (except CPRT), similar gross margins of 14-15%.
  • Article on dealership economy of scale: http://mibiz.com/item/21965-deals-for-wheels-auto-dealers-leverage-economies-of-scale-to-expand-footprints-through-acquisitions
Berkshire Hathaway Automotive auto dealership locations - 81 in U.S. (12/2015)

AltaLink, L.P. (will merge into Utilities & Energy segment) – 12/1/2014

  • Alberta’s largest regulated electricity transmission company, owns and operates ~60% of transmission system in Alberta
  • Supplies 85% of Alberta with electricity
  • Purchased for C$3.1 billion ($2.73 billion USD)

My notes on AltaLink LP:

Rationale: Company provides a necessary product (electricity), will earn decent returns on investment as guaranteed by regulatory body in Canada (~8.30% ROE), limited competition (supplies Alberta with 85% of electricity), and Berkshire Hathaway capital base can reinvest large sums of money and earn a "known" solid ROE. 
  •  Quick facts on AltaLink: http://www.altalink.ca/news/quick-facts.cfm
  • ~$200m annual run-rate of net income + ~$240m run-rate Depreciation & Amortization
  • Capital expenditures far exceed cash flow
  • Annualized EBITDA  = $560m on ~$800m revenue for 2015
  • Capital Expenditures mostly funded through increased debt (LT + commercial paper), less so capital injection and Cash Flow
  • Estimate of $7.4 billion total invested capital ($6.9 billion tangible), earnings ~ 5-6% ROIC using current year run rate D&A as actual maintenance capital expenditures
  • Similar to “Van Tuyl”, Berkshire Hathaway likely invested in AltaLink LP as they could utilize the Berkshire Hathaway capital base for large amount of reinvestments that would not have been capable under stand-alone AltaLink (almost no cash on balance sheet, ~$600m EBITDA and 7.2x net debt-to-EBITDA)
  •  Due to regulatory environment, AltaLink applies to have certain “return on equity” qualities based on their estimated operating expenses, and thus attempt to get certain pricing characteristics from customers in order to obtain their stated ROE.

"Approved" Returns on Equity for AltaLink, LP = 8.30%

Notes from Credit Rating Agency DBRS: “regulations approved ROE is lowest for investor-owned utilities in Canada over the past 10 years.”

Other investments:

  •  Purchased General Electrics (GE) tank cars from their leasing unit for $1.0 billion on September 30, 2015


Balance Sheet notes:

Fixed Maturity Investments:
  • Little movement YTD
  • 44% are invested in foreign governments
  • Of that, 75% are in Germany, Australia, Canada, The Netherlands
Investments (Securities)
  • Cost basis increased YTD from $58.4 billion to $63.0 billion
  •  Fair value decline YTD from $117.5 billion to $110.3 billion
  • 58% of the investments are in 4 companies: American Express (AXP), International Business Machines (IBM), Wells-Fargo (WFC), and Coca-Cola (KO)
  • Unrealized gains on securities has declined from $60.1 billion to $50.2 billion, largely from ~$5.7 billion decline in “The big 4”
  • Of the $110.3 billion fair value of investments, 96% are allocated to the “insurance” balance sheets
  •  International Business Machine (IBM) is down $2 billion (15% of cost)
Investment Activity (other)

  • Exchanged Philips 66 (PSX) shares for Philips Specialty Products (now Lubrizol Specialty Products) for $2.1 billion – (2/25/2014)
  • Exchanged Graham Holdings (GHC) for WPLG – (6/30/2014)
  • Took a $678m impairment on Tesco PLC


Insurance Operations:

GEICO:

  •  Continue to implement premium rate increases where necessary
  • Strong premium written (11.4%) and premiums earned (11.2%)
  • Increases in premiums reflect growth in in voluntary auto policies-in-force (6.1%) and higher premiums per policy
  • YTD = policies-in-force grew by 662,000 policies

Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group
P&C:
  • Premium increases due to new 10-year, 20% quota-share contract with Insurance Australia Group Ltd (IAG), effective July 1, 2015
  • Offset by premium decline in property catastrophe, quota-share, London businesses
  • Premium volume constrained because the rates currently are generally inadequate
  • As dollar strengthens, it adds FX gains because estimate liabilities get revalued lower in dollar-terms
Retroactive Reinsurance:
  • Contract with Liberty Mutual in 2014 for $3 billion did not repeat in 2015



Railroad, Utilities & Energy:

BNSF:
Capital investments in:
  • Line expansion
  • System improvements projects
  • Additional equipment

Other items:
  • New employee hires
  • Favorable winter weather conditions

 Revenue:
  • Down 3% ytd
  • 5% decline in average revenue per car/unit
  • Partially offset by a 1% increase in volumes
  • Decrease in average revenue per car/unit in 2015 due to 50% decline in fuel surcharges ($1.1 billion) due to lower fuel prices, offset partially by increases in average rates
  • Impact of lower fuel surcharge revenues affected revenues of all product lines
  • Freight revenues (industrial) down 13% in Q3/15 to $1.4 billion – lower volumes due to lower crude prices on petroleum products and frac sands, lower steel volume, lower revenue per car/unit
  • Freight revenues (agricultural) up 4% to $1.0 billion – higher domestic grain shipments, driving volume up 11%, offset by lower revenue per car/unit
  • Freight revenues (Coal) down 6% to $1.2 billion, mostly due to lower revenue per car/unit. Coal volumes increased 5% y/y
  • Freight revenues (consumer) down 3% to $1.7 billion, mostly due to lower revenue per car/unit, offset by volume increases of 5%

 Expenses:
  • Compensation & benefits: down, due to reduced overtime, lower training costs, offset by higher employment levels and wage rates



Utilities and Energy (Berkshire Hathaway Energy Group)
  • 89.9% owned
  • Domestic regulated utility interests – PacifiCorp, MidAmerican, NV Energy
  • Great Britain two regulated electricity distribution businesses – Northern Powergrid

 PacifiCorp:
  • Electric utility in Utah, Oregon, and Wyoming
  • Revenue down 1% y/y due to lower renewable energy credit revenue and lower rates and volumes
  • Energy costs decline more than revenues, thus margin improved

 MidAmerican Energy Company: ("MEC")
  • Electric and natural gas utility in Iowa and Illinois
  • Revenue impacted by lower average per unit cost of gas sold, offset by lower cost of sales
  • Higher rates in Iowa

 NV Energy:
  • Electric and gas utility in Nevada
  • Higher average regulated rates



Manufacturing, Service and Retailing:

McLane:
  • Wholesale distribution business that provides grocery and non-food products to retailers, convenience stores, and restaurants
  • Distilled spirits, wine and beer
  • Marked by high sales volume and very low profit margins
  • Several significant customers – Wal-Mart (WMT), 7-Eleven, and Yum!Brands (YUM)

 Manufacturing:
  • Industrial and end-user products group includes: Lubrizol, ISCAR, Forest River, CTB
  • Building products: Acme, Benjamin Moore, Johns Manville, Shaw, MiTek
  • Apparel: Fruit of the Loom, Russell, Vanity Fair

 Industrial:
  • Revenue declines due to strong dollar, which impacted by $210m of the $324m decline
  • Commodity cost deflation in petroleum and metals used in certain products resulted in lower selling prices, especially Lubrizol, ISCAR, and certain sectors in Marmon
  • Lower oil prices and competitive pressures, experienced lower selling prices

Building Products:
  •  Lower average raw material and energy costs helped, offset somewhat by FX translation and increased restructuring charges
  • Shaw (flooring) and insulation and roofing (Johns Manville) helped increase earnings the most

  
Other notes:

  • Debt issued by BNSF or Berkshire Hathaway Energy – not guaranteed by Berkshire Hathaway, and not committed to provide capital to support BHE or BNSF or any subsidiaries


Tuesday, December 15, 2015

CBS Corp. (CBS) comments [CEO Leslie Moonves] from 43rd UBS Conference (12/07/2015)

43rd Annual Global Media and Communications Conference
CBS Corp. (CBS)
Speaker: CEO – Leslie Moonves
Tuesday: 12/07/2015

Notes:
  • Goals and targets? Have a lot of initiatives. Last couple of years been more disruptive than any part of my career. This year – established ShowTime OTT and CBS All Access. Success for us is (1) Content, because even if you can distribute it well, if you have bad content people won’t watch. CBS is poised to be successful no matter how people get there content. Skinny bundle, they wont succeed without CBS. We would get paid more on skinny bundle. On A-la-carte, with CBS All Access, we will get paid even more. People can’t live without CBS – football fans, Stephen Colbert fans, etc.
  • Preference for distribution 3-5 years? Know its shifting, not sure how fast it is shifting. Every economic way you get CBS works for CBS. If the world stays where it is today, with retransmission fees and reverse compensation fees, our numbers are going up. $1 billion for 2016, $2b by 2020 in retrans and reverse comp. It will shift, though. Skinny Bundles will become more important, especially to millennials. We offer something for everybody, we will be there. All Access, maybe turn to no advertising for $9.99 per month. We feel well positioned for the future.
  • 2015 finish to year? Terrific. Distribution systems paying us more and more. Advertising is good. Q3 scatter was good, Q4 is better. 2016, we have extra AFC playoff game, Super Bowl, plus political advertising. The more the Republicans bicker, the better for us.
  • Drivers for 2016 besides what you’ve talked about? Showtime, CW, CBS content all has done well. All new shows have picked up. Homeland, Affair, other shows doing well. We will be #1 broadcast network for 13 our of 14 years. With advertising scatter this strong, you know in May it will be this strong. We took in less in volume by 4-5%, the ad scatter – advertising could've paid 20% less at one point, but…Our CRO is bullish on advertising.
  • Super Bowl sold out? Loaded question. No. Demand is high. Sold most spots for very high prices. As you get closer to game, some advertiser just HAS to be in Super Bowl. Or some movie producer will spend on advertising.
  • Any update on local TV or radio? Local TV and radio is up low single digits, very pleased about it.
  • How is new TV season been? Been a tipping point. We’ve had no home runs out of the box, which is unusual. Lots of singles and doubles. Any “Survivor” or “CSI”, no, but many that can sell in the future. Ratings have been slightly down, but after-market has been up considerably. We need better measurement of ratings as viewing shifts.
  • Shifts of programming strategy? Not really. Hasn’t been in 20 years. We’ve had great success with procedural crime, but we try other genres, Super Girl, Code Black, Limitless. Very pleased with how we are doing.
  • Competitor shows or scheduling that was surprising? Not really, no. Everyone has certain amount of successes. Empire has slipped some but still going great. NBC has some good stuff. Network TV is still strong.
  • Start with marketing, hope to build audience. NFL is potentially shopping Thursday night football. CBS has Sunday night for NFL for 9 more years. NFL is looking at a lot of ways to distribute. Looked at digital, for example with London game. Remains to be seen. Hope CBS continues with Thursday, we will pay a good price, but not something stupid.
  • Primetime – still about 50% of adv. Revenue? Last few years, CBS has transformed our-self. Day time now makes >$100m. CBS This Morning, growing tremendously. Late Night, changed both hosts, Colbert is  a lot more profitable than Letterman. Look across whole schedule, feel very good, no noticeable weaknesses.
  • Look at post-Super Bowl shows, a lot of bad shows right afterwards. We’ve put on Undercover Boss, Survivor. This year will be Colbert, as we have made an investment in the show.
  • Audience – how much measurement is missing in ratings? Good news for us, is something is missing. Not getting fully counted. There is real upside to this. Network is very profitable. Viewers are shifting all over the place, CBS not getting paid for every viewer. As measurement gets more precise, and it will, we will get paid more. Overnight ratings mean very little now. C3, C7, C30 should also come into the equation. If you watch an episode a month from now, will it be less effective then? Probably not, shows ads should count. Also, dynamic ad insertion will be strong. This is getting bigger and bigger and viewership moves beyond “live”.
  • Opportunities holding back on? CBS is thinking about  the future, how it will be 1,2, many years from now. Still, we run a public company. Need earnings, have to show earnings. We are cautious about what we invest in. Streaming investments have been good. Disney bought Maker Studios for $500m - $1 billion, they are bigger than us. They have Star Wars, we don’t. Have to handle the game a bit differently.
  • Retransmission - $1 billion in 2016. Affiliate renewal cycle? Had a few big ones in 2015, each year they go up. Not lumpy. No major retrans deals in 2016. Some of previous deals the price increases kick in in 2016.
  • CBS All Access, ShowTime OTT – investments had been made 3-4 years. Relationships with distributors are generally good, some good days, some not so good.
  • CBS All Access – at 85% for distribution, one distributor not in, but will be in shortly.
  • Showtime – doing more stuff like Hulu. People ask for predictions where it will be 3 years from now, not sure.
  • Star Trek – do you sell to Hulu, Netflix, Amazon? There are millions of Star Trek fans who will sign up for CBS All Access just for this show.
  • Going to war with Time Warner Cable (TWC) wasn’t fun, but we like the outcome. Noticed they went up for sale not long after. Got calls from Congress and FCC about why we didn’t get along, wasn’t fun. Made future conversations easier, though.
  • Verizon has put out Skinny Bundle, Sony is experimenting in it. Makes sense to get a handful of major cable networks, charge much less. It is inevitable, not sure when. Apple started this process and then slowed down. Higher sub fees will be the result. Sling TV doesn’t have any major networks. We would consider something if paid appropriately.
  • CBS.com – free to air? Yes, but less content than All Access. Has less shows. Will inevitably be molded into All Access.
  • We have no great desire to join Hulu. We want to have more control of our content.
  • Spectrum incentive auction – range on outcomes? Can’t be specific, have 28 TV stations, 13 are CBS, won't touch these, The independents, the CWs, would consider. The numbers we have seen are rather high, but it’ll be an auction. They put a number in Long Island TV Broadcast that we bought a few years ago for $55m and the first numbers they said were its worth $490m. We said “we’ll take it”. Now, that won’t be the final price for the NY spectrum. 4-5 markets we will get into it in a serious way. Will look carefully at. Maybe a couple hundred million dollars coming our way, when all said and done.
  • SVOD revenue – growth? We have good relationships with SVOD players. Netflix (NFLX) is not the anti-Christ, we enjoy the relationship. They buy our content, but also a competitor as they develop content, too. We do a lot of business with Amazon, Hulu, and growing internationally as well. A lot of local international SVOD players. Now 6-7 players for our product internationally, and the numbers will go up. Took Star Trek and kept ourselves instead of selling to Netflix.
  • Netlfix isn’t the only game in town with Hulu and Amazon there as well.
  • TV production  - too much TV? Don’t believe so. Maybe too much crap television. There is some difficulty in the talent pool but the best rise to the top.
  • CBS  - don’t own a lot of international licensing; domestically, sell to cable. Any other buyers? A lot more competition with SVOD players. By and large, the off-net stuff is performing well. Sometimes will see same time a SVOD or cable deal.
  • Showtime in 24 million homes, about 80 million left. $10.99 you get Showtime. Showtime OTT – won’t say the amount of subs. We will disclose the number when Netflix reveals how many people watch House of Cards.
  • Balance sheet, right level of buybacks? We are not heavy in debt, have buyback for another 1.5 years in similar level we have done. We have reinvested back in business, in premium content.

Monday, December 14, 2015

Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) comments [CFO Mike Cavanagh) from 43rd UBS Conference (12/07/2015)

43rd Annual Global Media and Communications Conference
Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)
Speaker: CFO Mike Cavanagh
Tuesday: 12/07/2015

Notes:
  • Goals for 2016? Execution. Excited about cable first and delivering on customer experience. Working on getting things right the first time. Ultimately shifting to net promoter side and the improvement in churn. Want to drive market share in cable – on track for double digit growth in broadband revenues, nearly 20% on business services in cable. Goal is to grow video subs on a y/y basis, encouraged thus far. Want to grow share on eneterprise, and growing things in wireless space with Wi-Fi. Lastly – X1 platform and driving more high speed data.
  • Networks goal for 2016: more retransmission and affiliate fees, which we think are still under-monetized. Olympics in 2016.
  • Parks: Harry Potter in Hollywood. That franchise had typically driven 2-3 million uplift in annual visitors to those parks, expect same for Cali.
  • Film: About to finish with best year in Universal Studios history with 3 movies breaking $1 billion at box office globally. 2016 wont be as big as 2015.
  • How to get net video sub growth in 2016? The X1 product and technology. For strong user of video, X1 is best out there. “internet Plus” is a skinny bundle, been available for couple of years, now has stabilized base. After promotional periods, about 30% upgrade to higher level of service over time.
  • College campus with 26 universities now.
  • X1 deployment – UBS estimated 30% penetration end of 2015. Ended Q3 at 25% of video base. Crossed 10 million deployed, running 40,000 X1 a day. 30% estimate isn’t that bad. Will push the pace a little faster in 2016. Looking at steep decrease in churn versus rest of population, much bigger penetration of DVRs and multiple devices, higher use of VOD, all driving higher ARPU.
  • Financial benefits of licensing the X1? Less the financials, more speaks of power of cable and our technology. Shouldn’t bake X1 licensing into modelling, its not a big financial mover for us.
  • Stream TV – cable service over IP for high-speed data customers. A thinner video package for $15 a month. Will only roll it out in the existing CMCSA footprint, relies on the Comcast rights for content as a cable service.
  • Worried about it cannibalizing the expanded basic sub-base? Not who we are going after, which is the non-video customer (broadband only). We are watching closely.
  • Competition in cable, versus U-Verse? Early days but it is competitive.
  • Programming costs, saw a drop in second half of 2015, expect for 2016? No, second half of 2015 lower than normal trends. Will revert to higher programming trends in 2016. Part of that is retransmission costs across all networks, higher sports costs.
  • Broadband – can you monetize it effectively with usage based pricing? We are growing high-speed data revenues, has been growth in market share for a while. Still think it is underpenetrated relative to opportunity in aggregate units. We are investing heavily in capacity, speed, in-home Wi-FI, out of home Wi-FI, hotspots, to make broadband highly valuable to customers. Use usage-based to make sure over time we get compensated for the investments made and the marketplace requires us to make. Key data point on usage-based pricing: 10% of client base uses 50% of capacity. So we are experimenting…
  • No plans to roll the pricing model out throughout entire footprint at this point.
  • Wireless w VZ: no news on this. Worth at this point triggering the MVNOs so we can experiment. We are continuing to invest in Wi-Fi as an extention of the value of broadband pipe, which is the still the best and cheapest way to transmit data.
  • Comcast to be a seller of spectrum where there is overlapping stations in a market. On NBC side, we will participate in the auction. On cable side, have not decided to look at spectrum auction, yet.
  • Enterprise: running just shy of $5 billion annualized run rate revenue for small and medium-size businesses. We are about 10% penetrated in medium-sized market. With a great Ethernet product and dedictaed sales force should be >10%. Higher than 10% in small business.
  • Capex – went from 14.5% of sales to about 15% o guidance. How to think about cable capital intensity in 2016? Been invested in X1, broadband, Wi-Fi gateways, business services, network capcity. 15% is a good place to start.
  • NBC core drivers for 2016: retransmission fees for NBC. 5 years ago it was $4 million. It will be $400- $500 million in 2015, probably $800m next year. Affiliate fees are under-monetized relative to power of selling together the NBC channles togethe. Sold as a package.
  • Bought 51% of Japan park, will increase total leverage from 1.9x to 2.1x because consolidation and Japan is higher leveraged


Verizon Communications (VZ) comments [CFO Fran Shammo] from 43rd UBS Conference (12/07/2015)

43rd Annual Global Media and Communications Conference
Verizon Communications (VZ)
Speaker: CFO Fran Shammo
Tuesday: 12/07/2015

Notes:
·         Goals for now? Priorities for 2015 were: (1) invest in networks and platforms. 2014 priority was to gain control over Verizon Wireless from Feb. 2014. Will invest $17.5 billion  - $18 billion in networks in 2015, mostly wireless and fiber networks. Want to be mobile first fiber company. With acquisition of AOL (AOL) launched go90 platform – mobile first platform for video. (2) buy spectrum. Spent $10.4 billion in auction to buy AWS 3 spectrum, gives us capacity for go90 product and 4G usage and the increase demand on this network.
·         Believe people want to be on the best network, are willing to pay a slight premium to be on best network, especially critical in the video world.
·         On properties sold recently: Sold 3 properties in south to Frontier, not fitting in our strategy. Fiber in footprints were well penetrated, >50% penetration, so felt it was time to monetize and return capital. Will close in March 2016.
·         Highest price for towers, $15 billion in gross proceeds, took $5 billion and did accelerated stock repurchase (ASR). YTD returned ~ $11 billion to shareholders.
·         Last priority for 2015 was balance sheet. Went into “installment receivable entity”, started to build a lot of consumer receivables on balance sheet. Been using securitization to generate cash from these receivables. Generated > $6 billion this year, mostly international banks because US banks can’t handle a lot of securitization right now.
·         2016 – same priorities, expect flat capex from 2015. Will participate in 600 spectrum. Want to get back to A-rating on balance sheet. Looking at ABS marketplace, having conversations w/ rating agencies.
·         Have monetized about $9 billion in serviced receivables this year, still only have 22% of customers on installment plan. Once you get to 50%, it kind of levels out, have 28% more to go. Securitization will more than double in 2016.
·         ABS market is extremely efficient for VZ because rate these receivables based on their classification, generally AAA or AA.
·         Biggest concern is competition in wireless market. Everyone will run promotions in Q4. Last year was more dynamic, on top of that you have new iPhone configuration, new format. Seeing less volume this year than a year ago. This is not a surprise to us.
·         Traditionally lower volumes leads to higher margins? Yes, but not necessarily true with installment environment, because already getting benefit when you do installment sale. Margin perspective doesn’t move based on volume anymore like it did under subsidy model.
·         Main strength of VZ is “network quality - will level of spend and stable spectrum keep VZ in lead? Believe the network is key ingredient to very strong brand. 4g requires a lot more densification in your network. Verizon is far ahead in small cell deployment, have to do this to stay ahead or will get congestion in larger markets. Majority of wireless spend is small cell in-building and diversified antenna systems. In 2015 – seeing 50%-75% increases in data usage on our network.
·         Becoming more cost effective to deploy small cells, cost to serve is going down as time goes on. Revenue equation on “service revenue” declining because of installment sale, the cost to serve is declining and that’s why our margin hasn’t changed. If take out effect of installment, still around 50% margin which is critical for VZ.
·         Spectrum: only use 40% of spectrum for LTE and it is carrying 87%+ of data traffic.
·         60% of spectrum being utilized on CDMA EVDO technology. Nomenclature that VZ is spectrum-short is just false.
·         Spent $10.4 billion and got 48 of top 50 markets with AWS-3, walked away from New York and Chicago because of the price. Instead, building it through densification at almost 20% less cost than would have in spectrum.
·         Cable moving into wireless, specifically Comcast? Millennials only care about broadband and video over mobile; care less about linear TV. Even we are trying to disrupt the FiOS product. Cable will enter the wireless world first using Wi-FI as a first, LTE as a backup. Think there will be quality of services issues with that.
·         Go90 launch – launched October 1, 2015. Will give investors numbers in 2016 some time. Have exclusive content with DreamWorks and AwesomenessTV. Working through early start-up issues.
·         How to monetize go90: (1) consume data and pay for it through data consumption. Giving away 2 gbs for free for 3 months if you download the app and watch something. (2) sponsored data if you are a VZ customer, will get data fro free and monetize via advertising. If not a VZ customer and watch on Wi-Fi, will monetize through advertising. (3) Or premium will be an access charge – fall under sponsored data model. (4) PPV type moneization, really made for multi-case technology.
·         Content producers don’t view go90 as disruption to linear TV. It is built on mobile and digital advertising.
·         NBA deal for go90 was huge.
·         Hum car product: 150 million vehicles on road that are not smart cars. Can plug into bottom of computer terminal and trn car into a smart technology like mBenz or GM with OnStar. But it does more than that. Launched – Black Friday 2015.
·         Margins: would not focus on service margin because now is irrelevant with installment sales. Been looking at EBITDA margin, want everyone to focus on that.
·         Change to installment: Will only allow customers to take installment sale. Current customer could keep subsidy model if they want. Think take rate in Q4 will be around 70% on installment sale and looking at increasing that into 2016 as we go to 100% installments. It will never get to 100% because enterprise will not do business on an installment basis. Installment has helped our retention rate, VZ is more competitive with other providers, reduced churn.
·         Wireline sale – ready to close end of March 2016. Been almost a year of cost-cutting in that segment. Union contract is not closed, still in negotiation.
·         Broadband/FiOS: spent a lot of money investing in broadband infrastructure and have one of the “plum” markets in US which is East Coast from D.C. to Boston. This is “the market to be” because of population. VZ is one of few companies still continuing to grow TV product, can do more with current penetration levels. If someone offered 10x EBITDA, would be interested though! But, unfunded liabilities would make it difficult. We have $30 billion of unfunded OPEB and pension, makes for difficult transaction.
·         Roll out more FiOS within remaining territory? VZ has gone beyond LFA requirement, continue to build down streets where there are lots of small businesses. Working mostly on NYC and Philadelphia to compete in those markets.
·         Custom TV: we are seeing people picking more nonsports than sports in custom TV. The people who go to custom TV are generally people who do not watch a lot of sports. But this does not have a long runway for growth because other contractual agreements with content providers. Will be some changes in 2016 around custom TV because have t rebundle it. Content costs are lower but it has lower revenue, but better from FCF perspective.
·         Flat capex of around $17.5 billion: majority around wireless, FiOS newbuild is starting to taper off.
·         Trying to get to A rating by 2018 to 2019.